Fortunes, and much else, changes in Bangladesh

[This article was written for the Round Table website. Views expressed in articles do not reflect the position of the Round Table editorial board.]

Sheikh Hasina’s resignation amidst violent protests is a sad commentary on the twists that Bangladesh, born of a freedom struggle in 1971 and the world at large, have witnessed. What began as a movement led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman 53 years ago against Pakistan’s military government, has culminated in yet another military takeover. Ironically, like millions of her compatriots who had fled then, Hasina, Mujib’s daughter, flew to India.

Also full of irony is the storming of her Dhaka home and the vandalising of Mujib’s statue by frenzied protestors. The man who led the freedom movement, called the “father of the nation”, was brutally murdered along with most of the family members (Hasina, living abroad, had escaped) in 1975. That legacy of mass struggle and resistance to the oppression of Bengali culture has all but ended.

The country is back under army control after reportedly, Hasina was given a 45-minute ultimatum to quit. The Army Chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, in office since 23 June, this year, has promised an “interim government”, without mentioning if he or the army would have any role in it. But there should be no doubts about who will call the shots. He has talked to opposition parties.

Among the first to be released is Hasina’s political foe, former premier Begum Khaleda Zia. She and her Islamist allies caused worries for the Western democracies only when Bangladesh became the hub of Islamist militancy at the turn of the century. These forces have anti-India credentials. The development should worry India. Hasina had contributed heavily to making India’s northeast safe. Will the region again become the militants’ hub?

Too little, too late

For the latest turn of events, Hasina, the world’s longest-ruling leader, in power since 2009, has largely herself to blame. She failed to read the warnings that came with the protests over an essentially socio-economic and potentially emotive issue. The protestors’ principal demand was the repeal of the job quota reserved for freedom fighters of the 1971 movement but extended to their children and even grandchildren. That, on the very face of it, if one looked above the emotions the freedom war generated, was unfair. Job quota was hurting those who did not benefit and came in handy for Hasina’s opponents amidst economic distress.

Hasina first called them ‘razakars’ (pro-Pakistan opponents of the freedom movement), and then called them ‘terrorists’. A Supreme Court verdict that reduced the quota to the minimum could have been a face-saver for both sides. But it was probably too little, too late. Some quarters have said that this concession would have further compromised Hasina. The use of force over the five weeks’ protests, enhanced in the last week, only added to the mass fury. Of nearly 300, over 90 were killed last Sunday alone.

How this issue took centre stage, and not the generally emotive anti-Hasina tirade with a strong “India Out” element, and how Hasina thought that she could suppress it all can be attributed to ineptness and hubris born out of an overwhelming parliamentary majority. She forgot that her father, too, enjoyed it, besides mass popularity. The Dhaka protests and the siege of Gono Bhaban compare with last year’s developments in Sri Lanka. The Rajapaksas also enjoyed a huge majority.

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UK exile?

When independent Bangladesh’s founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was released from Pakistani detention, he sought Britain’s help to return home, via New Delhi. India, its soldiers still on Bangladeshi soil trying to restore calm, endorsed that a British aircraft fly him to Dhaka. That was on January 9, 1972.

In 2008, Sheikh Hasina, Mujib’s daughter and the world’s longest-running democratic leader till she was ousted on August 5 this year, was prevented from returning home from the United States. She had arrived in London when her seat on a British aircraft was cancelled. With support from the British leaders and media, she fought her way back home.

This is stated in the context of the uncertainty about her seeking asylum in Britain. London’s reservations, though procedural, reflect the complex times that not just Britain faces as it seeks to retain its role, known globally, as the promoter and protector of freedom.

Hasina’s son, Sajib Wajed Joy told the BBC that she would not want to return to politics. Hasin brought her country out of abject poverty to emerge as one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies with some of the best human development indicators (HDI). With that went a degree of political stability that it had not enjoyed since birth. The military was largely confined to barracks. But this went with governance that was autocratic and corrupt. The end came when the army on which Hasina had depended to quell the angry mobs refused to act. This is a lesson for politicians everywhere.

Who’s running Bangladesh?

With Hasina’s exit, the legacy bequeathed by the man who led the freedom movement, though brutally murdered in 1975, has all but ended. Indeed, that legacy must go back to the 1950s when the Bengalis fought to preserve their language and culture.

The country is effectively back under army control. The Army Chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, promised an “interim government” and may well keep it with Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus acting as the Chief Advisor. Parliament is dissolved and elections, without a deadline or timetable, have been announced.

But Gen. Zaman has made no mention of whether he or the army would have any role in it. Going by what happened when the army seized power in Bangladesh thrice before, whatever the civilian role, there need be no doubts about who will call the shots.

Bangladesh’s neighbours

Clear indications exist of the involvement of the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami and socially powerful Islamist organisations, besides the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of ailing and jailed former premier Khaleda Zia. Pakistan’s ISI never stopped functioning in the erstwhile East Pakistan. India must brace for Bangladesh again becoming the hub of faith and tribal militancy.

Hasina was in India twice recently. We will not know if she discussed it or even gave an indication of her troubles ahead to Prime Minister Modi or anyone else in the Indian government. If India had any inkling, like it had about the threat to Mujib, and if it was conveyed to Hasina, we do not know.

Bangladesh, whether it was down and out in the 1970s or the last decade of Hasina when it had emerged as Asia’s fastest-growing economy, has the image and odium of being corrupt. The fact is corruption has never left Bangladesh. Hasina last month admitted and announced action against an aide who while working from her home, had made enough money to travel by helicopter. That, plus the use of the ruling party’s cadres – no matter which party –to beat down the opponents, which was in greater evidence in the last few weeks, remains endemic to Bangladesh.

Fortunes are most likely to change for Hasina’s Awami League (AL) and Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Hasina’s last-minute move to ban the Jamaat-e-Islami did not materialise. For the AL, the country’s largest political party, whose office was burnt down on Monday, it will be an uphill task ahead.

Bangladesh of the immediate future may have a “mixed package” for its people and the world to contend with. Bangladesh under the Khaleda Zia Government during 2001-2006 with the Jamaat-e-Islami as an electoral partner, became a hotbed of Islamist militancy. Counsel by Western governments and even the United Nations failed to curb this. The change came only towards the end or the government’s tenure, after the United States threatened stringent economic sanctions. South Asia and the world can do without yet another hub of faith-based militancy.

If she stays in India, it will be Hasina’s second exile, but under totally different circumstances. She spent about six years between August 1975 and May 1981 after Mujib’s assassination. She returned then. Whether she can return now is a big question. And if she gets asylum in Britain, she will change places with Tareq Zia, the exiled son of Begum and former President Ziaur Rahman.

For now, Mujib’s legacy and role in Bangladesh’s freedom movement has yielded to the rival legacy of another freedom fighter, Ziaur Rahman. 15 August this month will mark the completion of 49 years of Mujib’s assassination. Fortunes change, and how!

Mahendra Ved is a journalist who has worked for over 40 years in India and Bangladesh for United News of India (UNI), the Hindustan Times,  the Times of India and The Daily of the Blitz Group. He is also President Emeritus of the Commonwealth Journalists Association. 

Related articles:

Did Sheikh Hasin’s good economics lead to political disaster? – The Hindustan Times

Analysis: Why Hasina fell – The Hindu

Regime change in Bangladesh: The fall-out for India – The Daily Star

‘We’ve ousted this regime and will do so again’: the students bringing change to Bangladesh – Guardian

Post-Hasina: Bangladesh’s multiple challenges – The Diplomat

Nobel laureate Yunus makes emotional return to Bangladesh to lead caretaker government – Reuters